Should we buy yet?
World Cup Round of 16 — MetLife Stadium
Kickoff July 5, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · 0 days to go
Lowest right now
$6,446
floor $586 · peak $8,750 · 154 snapshots
Most likely you'll watch 🇧🇷 Brazil (50%) — but who plays is still a coin flip, and that's what moves the price. So I forecast it.
Forecast at kickoff: $5,421–$7,471 depending on the matchup, settling when the teams lock (~July 2).
How the forecast works
This isn't a scraped price. The opponents aren't known until the group stage ends — and they're the biggest driver of demand — so the pipeline forecasts who plays, then what that's worth.
Prediction markets + bracket
Polymarket odds · FIFA knockout rules
Simulate the path
groups → R32 → R16, exact marginalization
P(matchup)
who you'll actually watch
Demand model
E[price | matchup], prior · calibrating on the panel
Price forecast
distribution + buy/wait by expected value
Who will you be watching?
Final group standings now lock the feeder teams: Brazil–Japan and Ivory Coast–Norway. Market-implied strength feeds a Bradley-Terry model for those knockout games, and the Round-of-16 matchup distribution is computed exactly.
Group C winner
🇧🇷 Brazil
100% likely
Group F runner-up
🇯🇵 Japan
100% likely
Winner M76
🇧🇷 Brazil
50%
Group E runner-up
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
100% likely
Group I runner-up
🇳🇴 Norway
100% likely
Winner M78
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
50%
Match 91 · yours
🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
most likely matchup · 25.0%
Most likely matchups
Chance each team appears
Chance each team appears, over time
The same forecast replayed across every market snapshot. As the bracket resolves these lines pin to 0 or 100%, but stay visible so you can see every team that was ever in the mix.
What it costs across the bracket
All 8 Round-of-16 matches, priced today. Yours sits mid-pack — for now. Once the matchups lock (~July 2) demand reprices each one, and the other matches resolve days before yours: a built-in backtest for the demand model.
The price forecast
P(matchup) × E[price | matchup]. The market price is the blended expectation today; this is how it splits by who arrives — and what to watch for when the matchup locks (~July 2).
25%
chance of a ≥15% spike
25%
chance of a ≥10% dip
Lean: No edge yet
What it's worth, by matchup
- →The likely matchups price near today's level — no strong timing edge from the matchup alone.
- →Expected at kickoff ≈ $6,446 (market-anchored); $5,421–$7,471 depending on who arrives.
Demand prior (global interest + NY-metro draw), market-anchored. To be recalibrated and backtested on the other R16 matches once they resolve (~Jul 2).
The price over time, and the call
The collected series on a real timeline, with the milestones ahead. The buy/wait signal reads the trend, the distance from the floor, and how close we are to kickoff.
- →Both opponents are now set — demand for a specific matchup typically pushes resale prices up from here.
- →Opponents are locked in, so expect sharper price moves.
- →Prices have been volatile (±64.2%), so the floor may move.
Live data collected every 3h · 154 price snapshots · 100 market-probability snapshots · 94 ×8-venue panel snapshots