Should we buy yet?
World Cup Round of 16 — MetLife Stadium
Kickoff July 5, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · 22 days to go
Lowest right now
$1,479
floor $1,469 · peak $1,479 · 10 snapshots
Most likely you'll watch 🇧🇷 Brazil (49%) — but who plays is still a coin flip, and that's what moves the price. So I forecast it.
Forecast at kickoff: $1,206–$1,913 depending on the matchup, settling when the teams lock (~July 2).
How the forecast works
This isn't a scraped price. The opponents aren't known until the group stage ends — and they're the biggest driver of demand — so the pipeline forecasts who plays, then what that's worth.
Prediction markets + bracket
Polymarket odds · FIFA knockout rules
Simulate the path
groups → R32 → R16, exact marginalization
P(matchup)
who you'll actually watch
Demand model
E[price | matchup], prior · calibrating on the panel
Price forecast
distribution + buy/wait by expected value
Who will you be watching?
Market-implied odds feed a Plackett-Luce model for group positions and Bradley-Terry for the knockout games. Because the path factorizes, the matchup distribution is computed exactly.
Group C winner
🇧🇷 Brazil
71% likely
Group F runner-up
🇯🇵 Japan
38% likely
Winner M76
🇧🇷 Brazil
49%
Group E runner-up
🇪🇨 Ecuador
44% likely
Group I runner-up
🇳🇴 Norway
46% likely
Winner M78
🇳🇴 Norway
28%
Match 91 · yours
🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇳🇴 Norway
most likely matchup · 13.5%
Most likely matchups
Chance each team appears
What it costs across the bracket
All 8 Round-of-16 matches, priced today. Yours sits mid-pack — for now. Once the matchups lock (~July 2) demand reprices each one, and the other matches resolve days before yours: a built-in backtest for the demand model.
The price forecast
P(matchup) × E[price | matchup]. The market price is the blended expectation today; this is how it splits by who arrives — and what to watch for when the matchup locks (~July 2).
19%
chance of a ≥15% spike
29%
chance of a ≥10% dip
Lean: No edge yet
What it's worth, by matchup
- →The likely matchups price near today's level — no strong timing edge from the matchup alone.
- →Expected at kickoff ≈ $1,479 (market-anchored); $1,206–$1,913 depending on who arrives.
Demand prior (global interest + NY-metro draw), market-anchored. To be recalibrated and backtested on the other R16 matches once they resolve (~Jul 2).
The price over time, and the call
The collected series on a real timeline, with the milestones ahead. The buy/wait signal reads the trend, the distance from the floor, and how close we are to kickoff.
- →Price is within 0.7% of its lowest observed ($1469) and has ticked up over the last 48h — historically the bottom.
Live data collected every 3h · 10 price snapshots · 5 market-probability snapshots · 3 ×8-venue panel snapshots