Two tickets, two games

Who will I actually see play?

Across the R16 at MetLife (Jul 5) and the Third-Place game in Miami (Jul 18) — the chance I see each team play live at least once.

Distinct teams I'll see live

4.0 / 4

two games × two teams, minus the expected overlap

Most likely to see

🇪🇸 Spain 52%

Best chance of a double-dip (both games): 🇧🇷 Brazil at 1.1%

Chance I see each team play live

Each bar is the probability a team appears in either of my two matches, split by which game. The two events share a bracket — a team in my R16 match can return and lose a semifinal — so this is computed jointly from 30,000 simulated tournaments, not by multiplying the two pages' odds.

R16 onlyboth games3rd place only
🇪🇸 Spain
52%
🇯🇵 Japan
50%
🇳🇴 Norway
50%
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
50%
🇧🇷 Brazil
50%
🇦🇷 Argentina
45%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
43%
🇫🇷 France
37%
🇧🇪 Belgium
1%
🇺🇸 USA
1%
🇿🇦 South Africa
1%
🇨🇴 Colombia
1%
🇨🇭 Switzerland
1%
🇶🇦 Qatar
1%
Why not just add the odds? Because the games aren't independent. My R16 match (Match 91) and the bronze game are in the same half of the bracket, so the same team can show up in both — the both gamesband above. Adding or multiplying the per-page odds would double-count those teams; reading the union off one simulation doesn't.

From the live market-probability series · 100 snapshots · R16 · MetLife + 3rd Place · Miami