Should we buy yet?
World Cup Third-Place Play-off — Hard Rock Stadium
Kickoff July 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL · 0 days to go
Lowest right now
$1,408
floor $1,093 · peak $2,239 · 59 snapshots
Most likely you'll watch 🇪🇸 Spain (52%) — but the bronze match is the two teams who lose the semis, so it stays unsettled until July 15. I simulate the whole bracket to price it.
Forecast at kickoff: $1,095–$1,558 depending on the matchup, settling when the semifinals finish (~July 15).
How the forecast works
The two contestants are the losers of the semifinals — so unlike my R16 match, the path can't be marginalized in closed form. Instead I simulate the entire knockout bracket thousands of times and read off how often each team falls into this game.
Prediction markets + bracket
Polymarket odds (all 12 groups) · FIFA knockout rules
Simulate the bracket
groups → R32 → … → semifinals, Monte-Carlo
P(matchup)
who loses the semis and lands here
Demand model
E[price | matchup], Miami prior
Price forecast
distribution + buy/wait by expected value
Who will you be watching?
Group-winner odds (all 12 groups) seed sampled group standings; outright win-cup odds drive a Bradley-Terry result for every knockout game. 30,000 simulated tournaments — including the best-third-placed seeding that couples the two halves — give the matchup distribution.
Falls from Semifinal 1
Match 103 · yours
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇪🇸 Spain
most likely matchup · 23.5%
Falls from Semifinal 2
Most likely matchups
Chance each team appears
Chance each team reaches the bronze match, over time
The same simulation replayed across every market snapshot. As the bracket firms up these lines drift, and they'll pin to 0 or 100% the moment the semifinals finish (~July 15).
The price forecast
P(matchup) × E[price | matchup]. The market price is the blended expectation today; this is how it splits by who arrives — with a Miami demand prior (heavy Latin-American and Caribbean local draw) instead of NY-metro.
0%
chance of a ≥15% spike
17%
chance of a ≥10% dip
Lean: No edge yet
What it's worth, by matchup
- →The likely matchups price near today's level — no strong timing edge from the matchup alone.
- →Expected at kickoff ≈ $1,408 (market-anchored); $1,095–$1,558 depending on who arrives.
Demand prior (global interest + Miami / South-Florida draw), market-anchored. The contestants lock when the semifinals finish (~Jul 15).
The price over time, and the call
The collected series on a real timeline, with the milestones ahead. The buy/wait signal reads the trend, the distance from the floor, and how close we are to kickoff.
- →Both opponents are now set — demand for a specific matchup typically pushes resale prices up from here.
- →Opponents are locked in, so expect sharper price moves.
- →Prices have been volatile (±17.6%), so the floor may move.
Live data collected every 3h · 59 price snapshots · 100 market-probability snapshots